When Lance Armstrong announced his return to cycling after 3 years out of the saddle, the sporting world was stunned - his hard-earned reputation would be put on the line.
And while Armstrong has played down his chances of victory in this year’s Tour de France, (he claims his return to the sport is simply to raise awareness of his charity, Live Strong) surely anything less than an eighth Tour title, by Armstrong’s standards, will be seen as a failure.
So the question must be – does Armstrong have ability to pull on the ‘Maillot Jaune’ come July once more?
Armstrong himself has said that three years away from the cutting edge of the sport have done nothing to diminish his abilities. "When I’m on the bike I feel just as good as I did before," he told Vanity Fair recently.
It must be said that the magnitude of what this comeback is worth to the sport is huge. At a time of great uncertainty for cycling, this news may well be the catalyst that is needed to take the sport forward in testing times.
Black marks the spot
All the 'great' names from the past decade have black marks against them – Ullrich Vinokourov, Landis, Basso – the list goes on. Only Lance stands out as a great champion from a dirty era. His personal status will simply lift Le Tour to another level in terms of interest, and his return will surely be an inspiration to the new generation of young riders, too.
But no-one said that Armstrong’s return would be ride in the park, so to speak. When Armstrong romped to his seven victories on Le Tour, he was supported by a strong team dedicated to the overall victory. Everything in the Discovery Team was built solely around Armstrong and his success.
A tough ride
This time round, he sits in the saddle alongside the 2007 Tour de France champion, Alberto Contador, in the Astana team. Surely he won’t be afforded a free ride to the finishing post with a former champion in the ranks? If he is to climb the mountain and reign in France once more, he will have to do it the hard way.
Can he be victorious come July? Yes. But he'll have a lot more competition – not just from within his team, but through the entire field. The tour has many more potential winners around compared to Lance's heyday when it was largely a two-horse race between him a Lars Ullrich. He also won't have that aura of invincibility that enshrined his dominance of the tour; the current peloton will definitely think they can beat him.
His 29th placed finish in this month’s Tour Down Under in Australia demonstrates that Armstrong still has the fitness and ability to compete, but says little about his ability to win. Realistically, the Giro D’Italia in May will be a more accurate gauge of Armstrong’s chances of success.
Truth be told, everything points to an impossible challenge for Armstrong. But the same would have been said after Armstrong’s recovery from cancer. We simply can’t write the great man off - Armstrong is a fighter – a triumph-in-adversity kind of guy. He is a man used to breaking down barriers and defying logic. He’s proven himself an astute writer seven times already – so who would bet against a fairytale script this time around?